Can humanity survive a population of over 10 billion people?

By the end of this year , the human universe is expect to reach seven billion citizenry , just twelve years after we hit the six billion milestone . But how much more crowded is our planet belong to get ? Will we keep on expanding indefinitely , or are we approaching the upper terminus ad quem ? The current consensus is that we ’ll reach our maximal population by around 2050 and then start to tardily decline … but that might be found on two critically flawed supposal .

The United Nations estimates that the human population will reach nine billion mass right on around the year 2050 . see how tight we hold out from six to seven billion mass – and it also took only twelve long time to get from five to six billion – it might seem unusual that it could take nearly forty years to bestow another two billion . It ’s because the birth rate is actually negative in several post - industrial , generally flush land in southerly and eastern Europe , and this trend is expected to spread outwards .

Indeed , that particular universe trend is what scientists are counting on to bring the human population back down to a more sustainable form . Once the 9 billion mark is strive , the population should max out at about 9.5 billion , and then start to decline as the countries with slow shrinking populations are more legion than those that are still growing . In this model , all remain universe development is jolly much restrict to Africa and South Asia .

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But what if that trend does n’t spread across the world ? Then mankind might gain the eleven dactyl , as we could stumble the 10,000,000,000 tableland by 2100 . Could our planet corroborate that many people over the long - term ? Well , mass have been predicting Earth ’s fatal overpopulation sincethe day of Thomas Malthusand our major planet has scrape along all right so far , but that ’s scarce trial impression we can go on expanding indefinitely , particularly when one summate clime change into the equating .

There ’s another constituent to consider . There ’s a sharp scientific watershed over just how far we can push the human lifespan – some argue it ’s already moderately much tapped out , while others view as we could get the average life expectancy up to at least 100 by the remnant of the 21st century . We ’re hardly verbalize about immortality , but adding an extra twenty to thirty years of living to all the billions of masses could make monumental economic and sociological strain .

The current estimates are based on an finally worsen orbicular birth rate and a relatively static life anticipation , both of which keep us beneath 10 billion . But what if both of those are wrong , and we both commence living to a hundred and have circumstances of children ? The eminent - end estimate says we could reach fourteen billion by the remnant of the century – twice what we ’re looking at right now and almost certainly unsustainable without some massive technical and societal bound .

Bark Watch

Now , apparently , a C is still plenty of time to find novel solution that can sustain an unexpectedly large universe . But the fact of the matter is that the best for we can do for the human quality of life and the environmental balance is to actively exercise to keep populations comparatively low , as the Population Council ’s John Bongaarts explains :

“ Almost all of the growing in world universe will occur in poor countries , particularly in Africa and South Asia . But if we make much larger investments in family line planning justly now , the number of people could be closer to 8 billion . Such an investment funds would have a very beneficial shock on human welfare and any environmental issue we care about . ”

For now , we can only think what the future population will be and , in go , what core that will have on human race and our planet . We may well be able-bodied to keep the human population to a manageable bod , but as for me … well , I think I ’m going to start working on someCaves of Steel . You know , just to be on the secure side .

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